Bad weather in all top rice suppliers in Asia, including India’s largest exporters, threatens to reduce the output of the most important staple food in the world and food inflation that is close to the highest record.
Rice has been against the trend of rising food prices in the middle of bumper plants and large inventory in exporters over the past two years, even when Covid-19, supply disorders and recently Russian-Ukraine conflicts have made other seeds more expensive.
But bad weather in export countries in Asia, which contributes around 90% of world rice output, is likely to change the price path, traders and analysts.
There is a potential increase in rice prices with the possibility of decreasing production ratings in the main export countries,” said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at the National Australia Bank.
Increasing the price of rice will add a big challenge for the affordability of food in some parts of developing countries,” Ziebell told Reuters.
The patch in the Indian seed belt, the hot waves in China, the flood in Bangladesh and the quality downgrade in Vietnam can curb the results in four of the five rice, farmers, traders, and the top analysts in the world to Reuters.
“Rice can still be accessed even when the overall food price reaches the record level earlier this year,” said US Food and Agriculture Economist, Shirley Mustafa.
“We are now witnessing a setback related to the weather in several major rice producing countries, including India, China and Bangladesh, which can produce lower output if the conditions do not improve in the next few weeks,” Mustafa added.
The price of world cereals has jumped in 2022 despite the relatively flat rice price:
Decrease in production exact ‘
India’s top rice producing countries in Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal Western and Uttar Pradesh have recorded a deficit of 45% monsoon rainfall so far this season, data from the state-managed weather department showed.
That partially caused a decrease in 13% of rice planting this year, which could result in production down 10 million tons or around 8% from last year, said B.V. Krishna Rao, President of the All India Rice Exporters Association.
The area under rice cultivation also dropped because some farmers shifted to pulses and oil seeds, said Rao.
Rice planted by India’s summer contributed more than 85% of its annual production, which jumped to a record of 129.66 million tons in the plant year until June 2022.
“The decline in production is certain, but the big question is how the government will react,” said Dealer based in Mumbai with global trading companies.
The stock of ground rice and rice in India on July 1 amounted to 55 million tons, versus the target of 13.54 million tons.
It has kept the price of rice down in the past year together with an Indian record of 21.5 million tons of shipping in 2021, which is more than the total sent by the next four largest exporters – Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the United States.
“But the government is hypersensitive about prices. A small increase can encourage him to impose export sidewalks,” the trader said.
In Vietnam, rain during the harvest has damaged the quality of seeds.
“I have never seen it as much rain during the harvest. It was only abnormal,” said Tran Cong Dang, a 50 -year -old farmer based in BAC Delta Mekong Province.
“In just ten days, the total rain that was measured was somewhat the same as the whole month,” said Dang, who estimated the 70% output loss in the rice field of 2 hectares due to flooding.
Import, price
China, the largest rice consumer and importer in the world, has suffered loss of extreme heat in the area of seed growth and is expected to lift imports to a record of 6 million tons in 2022/23, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
China imported 5.9 million tons a year ago.
The third largest consumer in the world, Bangladesh, is also expected to import more rice after flood damage in its main producing regions, traders said.
Fully deficiencies in countries other than India have not been estimated by analysts or government institutions that often only publish output data at the end of the year.
But the impact of unfriendly plants can be seen in a slight increase in export prices from India and Thailand this week.
“The price of rice is close to the bottom and we see the market rising from the current level,” said a trader based in Singapore in one of the largest rice traders in the world.
“Demand increases with buyers like the Philippines and others in Africa who want to order cargo.”
Changes in the price of two years in the main global food staples:
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